Why are we shutting down the economy if we only have 10 cases of covid-19 in carver county?4/6/2020 If this is your question, the answers lie in the way that epidemiologists use math. Here's the most effective explanation for how a pandemic works that I've seen yet, produced by Twin Cities Public Television.
Another thing to consider is that we are highly mobile people. It's easy to assume that population density would be the biggest contributor to the spread of this virus, and indeed New York is showing us that disease is spreading rapidly there. However, think about all the other reasons we move ourselves (and our personal copies of this virus) around. CityLab has this awesome analysis of why density isn't the only factor. A few countries have tried to deliberately and quickly build "herd immunity," which is based in the argument that if a lot of people get this virus quickly, then the virus won't have any people left to infect. The UK was notable in pursuing, and then backing off, this policy. The problem with "herd immunity" is that, because we use our health care system to save people's lives instead of just letting people die, we'll overwhelm our hospitals before we see the benefits of immunity. Now UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in the hospital with COVID-19 and Queen Elizabeth delivered a rare speech to the country. (For you language enthusiasts, here's BBC Pidgin's coverage of the Queen's speech--is Pidgin a language or a dialect?) So, answer your own question. Why have epidemiologists told everyone in the country to stay inside? Why are we willing to risk the economy for the sake of limiting transmission?
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